Post-entry hit rates: calibrate TP/SL to how your entries actually move

What Aped’s hit-rate analytics show today vs the full hindsight optimizer on the roadmap — honest trader FAQ.

What ships today

For each demo profile, Aped stores post-entry market-cap paths after your first buys. The Hit rates view answers: on those paths, how often did price touch common TP/SL levels (for example +25% / +60% TP or −30% SL) inside a time window?

That is the practical question: “With my entry style on this profile, which exit bands would have been reachable?” — not a promise that the same levels will work tomorrow.

What is not fully shipped yet

A full hindsight optimizer that searches every TP/SL/trailing grid and ranks “the best strategy you should have used” is specified in our analytics PRD (Phase C). Hit rates are the honest MVP of that idea: transparent, per-profile, tied to your real entries.

How to use it

  1. Paper trade on one profile long enough to build a sample.
  2. Open Analytics → Post-entry MC and Hit rates.
  3. If +60% TP almost never prints but −30% SL often does, tighten targets or rethink entries — then test the change on a fresh challenge profile.

Deeper skill framing: trader guide.